01 / Perceived opportunity
Interpretation
The comment links a belief in price control to a possible buying opportunity.
01 / Concept · Manipulation Belief
Perceived control over price formation
Price-control narratives are common in retail stock discussion. On Eastmoney Guba, investors attribute rallies, sell-offs and stalled prices to large traders or institutions. They describe prices being pushed higher, driven lower or held down deliberately.
Manipulation belief captures the view that powerful traders deliberately control a stock’s price formation. It concerns the perceived integrity of the trading process. Confidence in the company’s business or future returns is a separate judgment.
Research on financial trust examines perceived fairness and the risk of being cheated. Key studies survey trust in other people or financial advisers, or study responses to revealed fraud. These measures do not directly track whether investors believe a particular stock’s price is controlled on a given day.
We identify these beliefs in varied, often indirect language and measure their daily prevalence for each stock. We also record the author’s attitude toward control. Some investors expect to profit alongside powerful traders; others see a threat and express an intention to stay out. This distinction supports research on participation, trading intentions and investor communication.
Research context
Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales (2008), Trusting the Stock Market. Surveys of generalized trust and trust in a financial adviser.
Giannetti and Wang (2016), Corporate Scandals and Household Stock Market Participation. Household participation following the revelation of corporate fraud.
Gurun, Stoffman and Yonker (2018), Trust Busting: The Effect of Fraud on Investor Behavior. Investor responses to local exposure to the Madoff fraud.
Jin (2025), Navigating Entrapment. Ethnographic evidence on mistrust and continued speculative participation among Chinese retail investors.
02 / Interpretation
Belief and attitude in investor language
A control belief can reflect perceived opportunity, perceived risk or an unclear assessment. The wording and the author’s stated response guide the interpretation.
02 / Perceived risk
Investor voice
“They decide where this stock goes. I’m staying out. You should too.”
Interpretation
The comment links a belief in price control to a stated intention to stay out and a warning to others.
03 / Assessment unclear
Investor voice
“They’re holding the price down again.”
Interpretation
The comment expresses a belief in price control but gives no assessment of its consequences.
Measurement records the control belief, the author’s attitude and any stated response. The same distinctions apply across varied language at scale.
03 / Measurement
Measuring belief at scale
For each stock and trading day, manipulation belief is the share of posts expressing a belief in deliberate control over price formation. Posts with adverse, supportive or unclear assessments all count toward this share.
344.49MPosts classified
27.86MPosts expressing manipulation belief
2010–2025Sample publication years
27,862,209 belief posts316,626,114 no-belief posts
The corpus share pools posts across the full discussion stream. The daily measure is calculated separately for each stock and trading day.
An observed stock-date
From classified posts to a daily share
Stock 000001 · 2024-06-14
19Belief posts
14 adverse · 2 supportive · 3 unclear
288Total posts in the same stock discussion
6.60%Manipulation belief
19 of 288 posts express the belief.
A higher share means the belief is more prevalent in that stock’s discussion. Each post counts once. Attitude labels record the author’s assessment of control. The daily measure includes stock-days with at least 10 posts.
04 / Descriptive statistics
Manipulation belief in the data
The corpus shows how often control beliefs appear, how investors assess them, and how prevalence varies across stock discussions.
Months with ≥1,000 posts · 2010-05 to 2025-08
Belief prevalence over time
Each month pools all classified posts. The line shows the share expressing manipulation belief; the bars show the number of posts.
2025-087.89%43,117 belief posts / 546,694 total posts
Drag or use arrow keys
The chart includes months with at least 1,000 posts. January–April 2010 contain 31 posts in total. August 2025 ends on 7 August. Monthly shares use pooled post counts rather than the average of daily stock measures.
Full sample · Historical market context
Industry and stock size place the daily measure in context. Each observation is one stock on one trading day.
6.11M industry observations · 5,472 stocks
6.12M size observations · 5,472 stocks
The source corpus covers 2010–2025, through 7 August 2025. The first stock-date with at least 10 posts is in May 2010. The figures below match observations to historical market data and weight each stock-day equally.
Industry × year · Industry × size
Belief across industries
Manipulation belief appears in all 31 industries. The annual view shows mean daily belief shares by year. The size view compares stocks of different sizes within each industry.
Machinery · 20257.72%42,450 stock-days · 572 stocks
Fewer than 100 stock-daysNo observations
All 31 industries are shown. Industry assignments follow historical entry and exit dates. Hatching marks small samples; exact values remain available. The size view contains 6,049,825 observations matched to both market value and industry.
Five daily market-value groups
Belief across stock sizes
Groups range from the smallest to the largest circulating market value. The dashed line shows the sample mean. The values below each group show its median market value.
Smallest · Full sample8.46%852,097 stock-days · 3,815 stocks
The largest group has the lowest full-sample average, 7.17%. The second-smallest group averages 8.82%. Select a year to compare the groups on the same scale.
Stocks are grouped each trading day by that day’s circulating market value. The reference universe includes listed stocks with market values that appear in the full corpus. The daily post threshold is applied after grouping. Stocks can move between groups over time.
Historical matches, annual coverage and complete statistics
The industry sample contains 296,865,783 posts across 6,109,787 stock-days. The size sample contains 297,896,117 posts across 6,121,060 stock-days. Both span 2010-05-07 to 2025-08-06. Each stock-day requires at least 10 posts on an open trading date within the security’s listing window. The full-corpus figures above and below include weekend posts.
Source: Tushare daily market indicators and historical Shenwan industry classifications. Market values are converted from units of RMB 10,000 to RMB. Industry labels use the SW2021 level-one sector names. Entry dates are inclusive; exit dates are exclusive. Observations with missing market values or industry records are excluded from the respective samples.
Documented stock-code changes are reconciled before daily aggregation. Posts under old and new codes for the same security are combined. BSE observations begin no earlier than 15 November 2021. Coverage percentages below use eligible trading-date observations as their denominator.
Download industry, size and annual coverage statistics (JSON)| Year | Eligible stock-dates | Listed trading dates | Industry matches | Size matches | Industry coverage | Size coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 788 | 717 | 684 | 706 | 95.4% | 98.5% |
| 2011 | 1,823 | 1,686 | 1,659 | 1,651 | 98.4% | 97.9% |
| 2012 | 1,699 | 1,576 | 1,532 | 1,515 | 97.2% | 96.1% |
| 2013 | 6,894 | 6,382 | 6,276 | 6,177 | 98.3% | 96.8% |
| 2014 | 45,564 | 44,254 | 43,199 | 43,627 | 97.6% | 98.6% |
| 2015 | 168,776 | 160,769 | 157,391 | 157,084 | 97.9% | 97.7% |
| 2016 | 419,991 | 391,204 | 380,738 | 377,143 | 97.3% | 96.4% |
| 2017 | 619,939 | 540,834 | 527,006 | 519,958 | 97.4% | 96.1% |
| 2018 | 534,413 | 499,896 | 489,377 | 487,518 | 97.9% | 97.5% |
| 2019 | 564,559 | 527,405 | 517,894 | 525,768 | 98.2% | 99.7% |
| 2020 | 755,554 | 686,308 | 675,424 | 684,428 | 98.4% | 99.7% |
| 2021 | 839,360 | 749,486 | 740,977 | 747,931 | 98.9% | 99.8% |
| 2022 | 784,631 | 720,359 | 717,618 | 718,856 | 99.6% | 99.8% |
| 2023 | 730,475 | 678,072 | 677,024 | 677,349 | 99.8% | 99.9% |
| 2024 | 759,470 | 706,514 | 705,783 | 705,482 | 99.9% | 99.9% |
| 2025 | 507,886 | 467,521 | 467,205 | 465,867 | 99.9% | 99.6% |
| Industry | Mean daily share | Stock-days | Stocks | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machinery | 8.61% | 493,656 | 703 | 19,372,594 |
| Healthcare | 7.75% | 477,287 | 520 | 23,034,476 |
| Electronics | 7.90% | 462,879 | 559 | 25,890,356 |
| Basic chemicals | 8.69% | 442,848 | 556 | 18,666,660 |
| Computing | 8.00% | 411,643 | 392 | 21,499,575 |
| Electrical equipment | 8.06% | 368,275 | 418 | 18,352,240 |
| Automobiles | 8.40% | 300,157 | 307 | 16,430,075 |
| Media | 8.23% | 214,944 | 155 | 12,612,636 |
| Real estate | 8.42% | 209,815 | 167 | 9,767,916 |
| Nonferrous metals | 7.96% | 202,843 | 171 | 11,361,283 |
| Construction | 8.60% | 202,696 | 196 | 8,589,658 |
| Food & beverage | 6.86% | 173,319 | 140 | 9,238,940 |
| Utilities | 8.03% | 173,035 | 147 | 8,488,540 |
| Transportation | 8.00% | 171,635 | 140 | 7,298,763 |
| Telecom | 8.12% | 161,021 | 141 | 8,985,086 |
| Retail | 9.01% | 153,588 | 145 | 7,802,647 |
| Defense | 7.71% | 152,655 | 153 | 7,170,750 |
| Nonbank financials | 7.02% | 148,023 | 90 | 9,892,732 |
| Agriculture | 7.96% | 147,446 | 133 | 7,380,752 |
| Light manufacturing | 8.66% | 140,634 | 171 | 5,408,699 |
| Textiles & apparel | 9.02% | 129,035 | 137 | 5,325,412 |
| Building materials | 8.73% | 111,928 | 113 | 4,833,947 |
| Environmental services | 8.19% | 108,376 | 146 | 3,771,870 |
| Home appliances | 8.00% | 97,627 | 109 | 4,990,514 |
| Consumer services | 7.67% | 86,488 | 97 | 3,756,782 |
| Steel | 7.93% | 72,305 | 47 | 3,481,278 |
| Banks | 5.96% | 69,511 | 42 | 3,111,312 |
| Petroleum & petrochemicals | 8.73% | 68,339 | 53 | 3,130,326 |
| Coal | 8.16% | 67,205 | 40 | 3,287,427 |
| Conglomerates | 9.16% | 62,888 | 113 | 2,802,111 |
| Beauty & personal care | 7.50% | 27,686 | 35 | 1,130,426 |
Full corpus · Attitudes and daily variation
Among belief-expressing posts
Attitudes toward control
The same control belief can carry different assessments.
Adverse58.0%
16,156,218 posts · Perceived harm from control.
Supportive24.5%
6,825,783 posts · Perceived benefit from control.
Assessment unclear17.5%
4,880,208 posts · Control belief with no clear assessment.
Denominator: 27,862,209 belief posts. The categories describe the author’s assessment of control, rather than bullish or bearish sentiment.
Stock × Publication date · At least 10 posts
Variation across discussions
Each stock-date observation receives equal weight. Most discussions have a low share of posts expressing manipulation belief.
7.14% Median share17.24% 90th percentile
The distribution contains 6,741,822 stock-date observations defined by publication date. It includes non-trading days and uses no exchange-calendar filter.
Data scope and monthly observations
Source: Eastmoney Guba, post classification. Sample period: 2010–2025, through 7 August 2025. The sample contains 344,488,323 classified posts. Stock-date profiles use primary stock-board codes with six digits and require at least 10 posts. They exclude 513,031 posts with missing board codes or codes other than six digits. Eligible profiles contain 315,035,249 posts. Before the activity filter, the code-based sample covers 6,368 board codes. Board-code coverage does not establish a verified listed-stock universe.
The charts describe expressed beliefs. They do not establish actual price manipulation or realized trading behavior.
Download aggregate statistics (JSON)| Month | All posts | Belief posts | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-01 | 4 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2010-02 | 7 | 1 | 14.29% |
| 2010-03 | 10 | 1 | 10.00% |
| 2010-04 | 10 | 2 | 20.00% |
| 2010-05 | 7,948 | 588 | 7.40% |
| 2010-06 | 8,418 | 777 | 9.23% |
| 2010-07 | 10,379 | 887 | 8.55% |
| 2010-08 | 11,977 | 1,107 | 9.24% |
| 2010-09 | 13,309 | 1,144 | 8.60% |
| 2010-10 | 11,929 | 1,028 | 8.62% |
| 2010-11 | 15,660 | 1,506 | 9.62% |
| 2010-12 | 13,587 | 1,297 | 9.55% |
| 2011-01 | 11,427 | 950 | 8.31% |
| 2011-02 | 8,984 | 759 | 8.45% |
| 2011-03 | 16,932 | 1,652 | 9.76% |
| 2011-04 | 15,985 | 1,435 | 8.98% |
| 2011-05 | 16,645 | 1,450 | 8.71% |
| 2011-06 | 13,090 | 1,108 | 8.46% |
| 2011-07 | 15,880 | 1,360 | 8.56% |
| 2011-08 | 16,951 | 1,334 | 7.87% |
| 2011-09 | 12,607 | 1,041 | 8.26% |
| 2011-10 | 9,169 | 727 | 7.93% |
| 2011-11 | 12,124 | 1,032 | 8.51% |
| 2011-12 | 11,986 | 937 | 7.82% |
| 2012-01 | 5,940 | 461 | 7.76% |
| 2012-02 | 9,804 | 804 | 8.20% |
| 2012-03 | 15,595 | 1,390 | 8.91% |
| 2012-04 | 12,187 | 1,104 | 9.06% |
| 2012-05 | 17,823 | 1,592 | 8.93% |
| 2012-06 | 15,215 | 1,483 | 9.75% |
| 2012-07 | 15,989 | 1,290 | 8.07% |
| 2012-08 | 16,128 | 1,268 | 7.86% |
| 2012-09 | 14,192 | 1,181 | 8.32% |
| 2012-10 | 12,070 | 917 | 7.60% |
| 2012-11 | 14,392 | 1,167 | 8.11% |
| 2012-12 | 16,820 | 1,619 | 9.63% |
| 2013-01 | 23,435 | 2,117 | 9.03% |
| 2013-02 | 19,770 | 1,888 | 9.55% |
| 2013-03 | 31,825 | 2,653 | 8.34% |
| 2013-04 | 23,824 | 1,768 | 7.42% |
| 2013-05 | 27,728 | 2,546 | 9.18% |
| 2013-06 | 37,480 | 3,599 | 9.60% |
| 2013-07 | 47,170 | 4,683 | 9.93% |
| 2013-08 | 50,859 | 5,062 | 9.95% |
| 2013-09 | 55,072 | 5,269 | 9.57% |
| 2013-10 | 47,879 | 5,516 | 11.52% |
| 2013-11 | 61,324 | 5,981 | 9.75% |
| 2013-12 | 69,904 | 7,000 | 10.01% |
| 2014-01 | 76,211 | 7,385 | 9.69% |
| 2014-02 | 92,212 | 8,885 | 9.64% |
| 2014-03 | 128,398 | 12,847 | 10.01% |
| 2014-04 | 105,513 | 10,761 | 10.20% |
| 2014-05 | 89,026 | 8,794 | 9.88% |
| 2014-06 | 113,971 | 11,457 | 10.05% |
| 2014-07 | 171,487 | 17,856 | 10.41% |
| 2014-08 | 197,912 | 20,965 | 10.59% |
| 2014-09 | 209,440 | 21,915 | 10.46% |
| 2014-10 | 175,429 | 17,997 | 10.26% |
| 2014-11 | 235,944 | 24,364 | 10.33% |
| 2014-12 | 356,757 | 35,707 | 10.01% |
| 2015-01 | 289,837 | 28,570 | 9.86% |
| 2015-02 | 221,049 | 22,618 | 10.23% |
| 2015-03 | 429,978 | 44,341 | 10.31% |
| 2015-04 | 634,480 | 71,858 | 11.33% |
| 2015-05 | 628,084 | 69,982 | 11.14% |
| 2015-06 | 620,296 | 65,224 | 10.51% |
| 2015-07 | 533,422 | 50,641 | 9.49% |
| 2015-08 | 445,349 | 41,765 | 9.38% |
| 2015-09 | 374,116 | 34,641 | 9.26% |
| 2015-10 | 392,416 | 39,694 | 10.12% |
| 2015-11 | 632,947 | 68,872 | 10.88% |
| 2015-12 | 725,262 | 80,862 | 11.15% |
| 2016-01 | 1,370,126 | 129,147 | 9.43% |
| 2016-02 | 812,202 | 79,115 | 9.74% |
| 2016-03 | 1,330,992 | 136,689 | 10.27% |
| 2016-04 | 1,270,401 | 138,322 | 10.89% |
| 2016-05 | 1,193,763 | 122,118 | 10.23% |
| 2016-06 | 1,566,423 | 152,315 | 9.72% |
| 2016-07 | 1,772,377 | 183,499 | 10.35% |
| 2016-08 | 1,470,107 | 159,269 | 10.83% |
| 2016-09 | 1,200,596 | 129,315 | 10.77% |
| 2016-10 | 878,030 | 91,929 | 10.47% |
| 2016-11 | 1,536,296 | 168,753 | 10.98% |
| 2016-12 | 1,563,197 | 162,331 | 10.38% |
| 2017-01 | 1,108,367 | 110,541 | 9.97% |
| 2017-02 | 1,066,728 | 108,914 | 10.21% |
| 2017-03 | 2,187,441 | 214,963 | 9.83% |
| 2017-04 | 2,054,679 | 176,671 | 8.60% |
| 2017-05 | 1,908,422 | 172,032 | 9.01% |
| 2017-06 | 2,097,344 | 181,207 | 8.64% |
| 2017-07 | 3,028,139 | 226,414 | 7.48% |
| 2017-08 | 2,568,951 | 211,467 | 8.23% |
| 2017-09 | 2,462,736 | 216,355 | 8.79% |
| 2017-10 | 1,938,414 | 153,331 | 7.91% |
| 2017-11 | 2,039,563 | 185,743 | 9.11% |
| 2017-12 | 1,670,926 | 155,096 | 9.28% |
| 2018-01 | 2,018,058 | 199,458 | 9.88% |
| 2018-02 | 1,217,850 | 106,948 | 8.78% |
| 2018-03 | 1,828,242 | 170,780 | 9.34% |
| 2018-04 | 1,748,602 | 159,147 | 9.10% |
| 2018-05 | 2,315,322 | 206,795 | 8.93% |
| 2018-06 | 2,260,305 | 188,243 | 8.33% |
| 2018-07 | 2,261,143 | 198,331 | 8.77% |
| 2018-08 | 1,679,520 | 152,503 | 9.08% |
| 2018-09 | 1,398,232 | 124,390 | 8.90% |
| 2018-10 | 1,436,499 | 113,474 | 7.90% |
| 2018-11 | 1,808,954 | 154,800 | 8.56% |
| 2018-12 | 1,444,517 | 128,341 | 8.88% |
| 2019-01 | 1,645,462 | 156,930 | 9.54% |
| 2019-02 | 1,253,660 | 111,477 | 8.89% |
| 2019-03 | 3,009,902 | 283,825 | 9.43% |
| 2019-04 | 3,536,971 | 338,930 | 9.58% |
| 2019-05 | 2,502,272 | 216,428 | 8.65% |
| 2019-06 | 2,297,677 | 208,736 | 9.08% |
| 2019-07 | 2,508,398 | 224,667 | 8.96% |
| 2019-08 | 2,542,702 | 216,097 | 8.50% |
| 2019-09 | 2,544,057 | 222,930 | 8.76% |
| 2019-10 | 2,231,943 | 185,129 | 8.29% |
| 2019-11 | 2,662,846 | 233,236 | 8.76% |
| 2019-12 | 3,065,459 | 270,624 | 8.83% |
| 2020-01 | 2,535,481 | 219,698 | 8.66% |
| 2020-02 | 4,076,288 | 324,862 | 7.97% |
| 2020-03 | 4,489,655 | 371,732 | 8.28% |
| 2020-04 | 3,746,950 | 335,074 | 8.94% |
| 2020-05 | 3,184,311 | 275,910 | 8.66% |
| 2020-06 | 3,630,685 | 326,051 | 8.98% |
| 2020-07 | 4,719,570 | 394,823 | 8.37% |
| 2020-08 | 4,507,663 | 392,063 | 8.70% |
| 2020-09 | 4,049,348 | 351,664 | 8.68% |
| 2020-10 | 2,447,129 | 198,258 | 8.10% |
| 2020-11 | 3,439,545 | 301,088 | 8.75% |
| 2020-12 | 4,254,681 | 378,920 | 8.91% |
| 2021-01 | 4,251,038 | 365,624 | 8.60% |
| 2021-02 | 2,847,608 | 238,354 | 8.37% |
| 2021-03 | 4,008,549 | 331,296 | 8.26% |
| 2021-04 | 4,151,526 | 369,408 | 8.90% |
| 2021-05 | 3,802,211 | 346,196 | 9.11% |
| 2021-06 | 5,014,191 | 456,931 | 9.11% |
| 2021-07 | 5,163,439 | 454,116 | 8.79% |
| 2021-08 | 5,387,363 | 477,489 | 8.86% |
| 2021-09 | 4,809,805 | 427,501 | 8.89% |
| 2021-10 | 3,314,467 | 271,714 | 8.20% |
| 2021-11 | 4,453,705 | 383,770 | 8.62% |
| 2021-12 | 5,234,238 | 467,093 | 8.92% |
| 2022-01 | 4,423,019 | 355,649 | 8.04% |
| 2022-02 | 2,720,857 | 174,257 | 6.40% |
| 2022-03 | 4,712,018 | 300,562 | 6.38% |
| 2022-04 | 4,122,245 | 249,724 | 6.06% |
| 2022-05 | 3,523,016 | 228,671 | 6.49% |
| 2022-06 | 4,134,747 | 276,872 | 6.70% |
| 2022-07 | 4,134,389 | 281,176 | 6.80% |
| 2022-08 | 4,036,188 | 259,365 | 6.43% |
| 2022-09 | 3,052,113 | 190,963 | 6.26% |
| 2022-10 | 2,343,073 | 122,709 | 5.24% |
| 2022-11 | 3,640,007 | 217,081 | 5.96% |
| 2022-12 | 3,881,779 | 238,093 | 6.13% |
| 2023-01 | 2,473,608 | 191,108 | 7.73% |
| 2023-02 | 2,961,745 | 214,650 | 7.25% |
| 2023-03 | 3,849,982 | 275,396 | 7.15% |
| 2023-04 | 3,823,326 | 268,729 | 7.03% |
| 2023-05 | 3,165,055 | 232,669 | 7.35% |
| 2023-06 | 3,409,391 | 237,798 | 6.97% |
| 2023-07 | 3,178,206 | 241,016 | 7.58% |
| 2023-08 | 3,474,035 | 238,485 | 6.86% |
| 2023-09 | 2,672,081 | 192,333 | 7.20% |
| 2023-10 | 2,343,911 | 147,527 | 6.29% |
| 2023-11 | 3,094,283 | 222,179 | 7.18% |
| 2023-12 | 2,982,529 | 202,438 | 6.79% |
| 2024-01 | 2,801,984 | 178,597 | 6.37% |
| 2024-02 | 1,950,941 | 116,044 | 5.95% |
| 2024-03 | 3,086,466 | 205,912 | 6.67% |
| 2024-04 | 3,196,902 | 205,919 | 6.44% |
| 2024-05 | 2,863,994 | 198,721 | 6.94% |
| 2024-06 | 2,519,515 | 159,201 | 6.32% |
| 2024-07 | 2,723,955 | 178,231 | 6.54% |
| 2024-08 | 2,735,680 | 184,338 | 6.74% |
| 2024-09 | 2,535,219 | 163,676 | 6.46% |
| 2024-10 | 3,665,169 | 240,606 | 6.56% |
| 2024-11 | 4,884,771 | 377,708 | 7.73% |
| 2024-12 | 4,895,087 | 384,546 | 7.86% |
| 2025-01 | 2,942,193 | 218,659 | 7.43% |
| 2025-02 | 3,235,375 | 231,609 | 7.16% |
| 2025-03 | 4,174,267 | 325,575 | 7.80% |
| 2025-04 | 3,818,727 | 261,352 | 6.84% |
| 2025-05 | 3,290,737 | 246,080 | 7.48% |
| 2025-06 | 3,826,627 | 291,934 | 7.63% |
| 2025-07 | 5,011,179 | 391,062 | 7.80% |
| 2025-08 | 546,694 | 43,117 | 7.89% |
Investor voice